Judging by the comments on my last post, “Android may catch RIM and Apple looking the wrong way.”, most people think the Apple machine will continue to roll over the mobile industry crushing all comers.
I just want to set the record straight here, I don’t dislike the iPhone. I think its a remarkable device that has certainly set the bar in terms of user interface. I just don’t think that it will become the monster everyone is making it out to be. The growth of the iPhone will be constrained by a number of factors:
- Contracts – Anyone who bought a blackberry or other mobile device this year or last probably signed a contract. This makes it hard for Apple, or anyone else to entice them to leave their carrier because of the high fees involved even if the iPhone 2.0 is cool as hell.
- Subsidies – In Canada right now I can get four Blackberries for free with a two year contract and service plan. Why would I spend over $2000 to equip my team or family with iPhones?
- Geography of Growth – emerging markets like Asia and Africa are the growth centers of the mobile industry. These are poorer regions that won’t opt for or be able to spend huge money for an iphone when a free or cheap Nokia or Samsung (running Android) will do.
I wasn’t able to find any statistics on iPhone sales that were more recent than January, however it appears that somewhere between 4-5M units have been sold to date. RIM by comparison has over 13M current active units worldwide. A company like Nokia dwarfs everyone. Nokia shipped over 40M units in Q4 2007 alone!
Having Apple in the mobile space will do a lot of good but the fact is that they will always just be a player and never run the game.
Tags: android, apple, blackberry, Google, iphone, mobile, Nokia, RIM
March 26, 2008 at 9:57 pm
I have similar reservations about an iPhone.
I’m an Aussie who lives in Singapore, and in the latter it’s unheard of to have a phone tied to a particular carrier. The three major telcos here don’t do it, and when I go back to Australia and see people stuck with what carrier they were given it really irks me.
It’s sad that I really like the device itself (I have an iPod Touch) but the fact that I’d have to wear a ball and chain isn’t terribly appealing at this point!
March 26, 2008 at 11:21 pm
Sure the numbers will be constrained to some degree, but the iPhone will overtake the BlackBerry by the end of this year or the middle of next year. It doesn’t have to make sense. Just like it doesn’t make that much sense that Apple is selling computers in record numbers while the rest of the computer industry isn’t doing that well.
If people want an iPhone, they’ll get them when their contract ends. Of course if the iPhone Pro is going to have all the bells-and-whistles, then people will opt out of their contracts to get one. You probably don’t remember that before the iPhone came out, the handset companies were saying the iPhone would be a failure since Apple knew nothing about handsets and what people want in a handset. I think they were wrong.
I agree that Apple will not come close to Nokia, but then again, Apple is not a handset company. One or two models of an iPhone can’t possibly go up against a 20-model lineup. However, Nokia sure won’t sell as many computers as Apple, either. I hope Apple doesn’t try to sell iPhones in the poorer countries. Sales will be limited and all the poor young thugs will be trying to steal them from the wealthy.
I respect your opinion and reasons for saying the iPhone won’t have monster numbers. But just follow the growth of the iPhone through the end of this year and you’ll see it’s sales number grow very quickly once it’s introduced in Asia.
March 27, 2008 at 2:46 am
I must note that you miss the tenor of half of the comments on your previous post. The most important point is that Android is still not a shipping product. It’s simply non-existent, the UI isn’t known, the hardware isn’t known, and the solution to limitations of memory and battery life aren’t known. You can say what you want about what you want, but you simply don’t know yet. It’s hot air, until the product ships.
To address what you focus on: It’s not that the iPhone will dominate – that’s not even the issue. People can think what they will about the iPhone’s future success, and they know as little as you do. Apple doesn’t want to dominate in the realm of cellphones; they want to dominate in the realm of smartphones. You can’t compare Nokia’s dumbphones to Apple sales; Nokia’s 40M units don’t matter. How many N95 did they ship? That’s what matters. (And, I think it’s a pretty sizable amount, so I’m not denigrating Nokia at all.)
My point is, I’m not promoting any one of the competitors. I’m being noisy about your logic. You have a wish, and that wish might come true. But you shouldn’t denigrate Apple or RIM to make your wish come true. Competition is great. The iPhone is grand, the Blackberry rocks, and perhaps Android will be better than both. But you simply don’t know. Until you do, chill out.
March 27, 2008 at 4:43 am
Do you really believe that Android will be on every Nokia phones?
How poor do you think Asia and Africa is? You mean to say the Asians and Africans can’t afford the iPhones, think again before you come up with this kind of argument, there are lot more rich ones in Asia and Africa than you think and not everyone is going for a cheap Nokia or Samsung.
BTW Nokia and Samsung sells some high end ones in Asia or you really believe most of the high end ones ended up in US.
Do some research before you start talking about the poor – check this for more info on market share of phone worldwide. http://www.cellular-news.com/story/29567_3.php, The poor also can afford something that they like and want.
March 27, 2008 at 5:10 am
So… you are not going to buy an iPhone because Apple doesn’t have a strong presence in Africa? Or because Nokia sells 40M phones?
How can this affect your decision to buy an iPhone?
March 27, 2008 at 7:35 am
@Carmelo Manganaro, the title of this post could have been better. My decision to buy an iPhone is delayed by the fact that its not yet available officially in Canada and i don’t want to have to worry about bricking the unit after every firmware update.
I don’t think that I’ll ever give up my BB curve though as i use email and a few other applications and i love the physical keyboard.